Trade Glitch Bug (1x WS not retrieved)

Yes, the logs confirm this. 1 White Scroll sent through Duey.

"Trade agreed upon: my (1ws) for trader's (10cs)"

It's good to know that people are still doing this after I spent an hour writing a write-up yesterday on the forums to try and convince buyers to stop trading 10 Chaos Scrolls for 1 White Scroll (instead, trading 9 Chaos Scrolls for 1 White Scroll) with data and evidence to show why 1 White Scroll is worth 9 Chaos Scrolls.

 

An update on the economy:

The inflation index has remained consistent over the last 2 weeks (we did not experience large amounts of inflation nor deflation):



The supply of Chaos Scrolls in circulation is falling rapidly from 29604 to the latest number, 23315. This is a 22% crash in supply, as expected. As I stated in my previous post, we should continue seeing the supply of Chaos Scrolls in circulation fall until around 15000 - 18000 Chaos Scrolls in circulation (the equilibrium point).



The price of Chaos Scrolls (on average) has increased from 41m to 43m (roughly 5%). This is reasonable because the supply of Chaos Scrolls in circulation is falling rapidly.



The supply of White Scrolls in circulation has risen rapidly from 6621 at the beginning of 2 weeks ago, to 7028 now. This is an increase of 6%. This can be strongly attributed to our on-going voting event.



As you can see, the White Scroll supply is showing a growing trend. We had a steady equilibrium of White Scrolls before we did the gtop100 voting event. However, the trend shows that the supply of White Scrolls will continue to grow. Why?

Despite the fact that the supply of White Scrolls has increased by 6%, White Scroll prices have not fallen. The buy-side of the White Scroll market can only consume as many White Scrolls as they can afford, and White Scroll prices have not fallen to the point where they can consume more White Scrolls than 2 weeks ago. We should continue seeing the supply of White Scrolls increase until an equilibrium is found (when the over-supply of White Scrolls forces their prices down to the point where buyers can start affording and consuming more White Scrolls than currently).

Specifically, the average White Scroll price has gone up from 418m to 456m (a huge amount, 9%) over the last 2 weeks, despite the fact that we created an event to increase the amount of White Scrolls in circulation by 6%:



Anyone who has taken a basic course in economics will understand that price is a function of supply and demand. The supply has gone up by 6% and the price has gone up by 9%. We can assume one or more of 3 things:

1. The market is rational and demand has exceeded supply by a large margin, which is why prices have risen.
2. The market is rational and prices have risen due to inflation.
3. The market is irrational.

(1) is not true, because we have not seen an increase in demand for White Scrolls (from a sudden wave of intermediate raiders joining the server), exceeding much more than 6%, over the last 2 weeks. (2) is not true because as shown by the inflation index above, we have not seen any true inflation or deflation trend over the last 2 weeks.

That leaves (3), the market is irrational. I hope that people can start to see that markets are irrational all over, not just in online games, but also in real-life markets, like the stock market. MMORPG markets are composed of hundreds, sometimes thousands of market actors, who aren't sharing accurate pricing information with each other. The more information asymmetry there is within an economy, the more likely we will see mis-priced goods. Specifically, with White Scrolls, a certain percentage of the server control much of the supply. This induces monopolization and information asymmetry.

What are the facts?

• The supply of Chaos Scrolls in circulation has dropped by 22%.
• The price of Chaos Scrolls has risen from 41m to 43m (roughly 5%). This is reasonable because the supply of Chaos Scrolls has fallen greatly.
• Despite the fact that the supply of Chaos Scrolls in circulation has dropped by 22% (and is continuing to drop), it appears that people are still taking the same amount of Chaos Scrolls for White Scrolls, even though we have officially advised people not to do this.
  • Specifically, if Chaos Scrolls are 43m each (on average) and White Scrolls are 456m each (on average), it would appear that the market exchange rate right now is roughly 10.5 Chaos Scrolls : 1 White Scroll. Our recommendation for this exchange rate is 9 Chaos Scrolls : 1 White Scroll or at most 9.5 Chaos Scrolls : 1 White Scroll, because the Chaos Scroll supply in circulation will drop by roughly an additional 20 - 25% over the next few weeks.
  • This 10.5 Chaos Scroll : 1 White Scroll exchange rate keeps White Scroll prices high because Chaos Scroll prices have increased by 5%, which will then create a similar increase in the cost of White Scrolls if the Chaos Scroll : White Scroll exchange rate does not change.

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I've supplied more facts and data here, I hope people can use this to their advantage to help accurately price goods in the Free Market.